European Journal of International Security, vol. 4, no. 2 (2019): 227-248.
Concerns over disinformation have intensified in recent years. Policymakers, pundits, and observers worry that countries like Russia are spreading false narratives and disseminating rumours in order to shape international opinion and, by extension, government policies to their liking. Despite the importance of this topic, mainstream theories in International Relations offer contradictory guidance on how to think about disinformation. I argue that disinformation is ineffective in terms of changing the policies of a target as regards to its foreign policy alignments and armaments – that is, the balance of power. To be strategically effective, disinformation must somehow overcome three powerful obstacles: first, the fundamental uncertainty that international anarchy generates over any information broadcasted by adversaries; second, the pre-existing prejudices of foreign policy elites and ordinary citizens; and third, the countermeasures that are available even amid political polarisation. I examine the most likely case of there seemingly being a conscious and effective strategy that emphasises disinformation: the Russian campaign that has targeted the Baltic states, especially since the 2014 annexation of Crimea. The available evidence strongly suggests that the strategic effects of disinformation are exaggerated.
Military Alliance's in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge, UK: Polity, 2022). LINK.
Russia's Rising Military and Communication Power: From Chechnya to Crimea, Media, War & Conflict, online, with James Rodgers. OPEN ACCESS.
Nodal Defence: The Changing Structure of U.S. Alliance Systems in Europe and East Asia, Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 44, no. 3 (2021): 360-388, with Luis Simón and Hugo Meijer. LINK.
Poland in a Time of Geopolitical Flux, Contemporary Politics, vol. 26, no. 4 (2020): 458-474. OPEN ACCESS.
The Post-INF European Missile Balance: Thinking about NATO’s Deterrence Strategy, Texas National Security Review, vol. 3, no. 3 (2020): 12-30, with Luis Simón. OPEN ACCESS.
Thank Goodness for NATO Enlargement, International Politics, vol. 57 (2020): 451-470. LINK.
Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance in the Baltic Region, Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, vol. 2, no. 1: (2019): 84-94. OPEN ACCESS.
The INF Treaty: Pulling Out in Time, Strategic Studies Quarterly, vol. 13, no. 2 (2019): 48-67. OPEN ACCESS.
Disinformation in International Politics, European Journal of International Security, vol. 4, no. 2 (2019): 227-248. LINK.
Conventional Deterrence and Landpower in Northeastern Europe (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2019), with Michael A. Hunzeker. OPEN ACCESS.
A Question of Time: Enhancing Taiwan's Conventional Deterrent Posture (Arlington, VA: Center for Security Policy Studies, 2018), with Michael A. Hunzeker. OPEN ACCESS.
Atomic Assurance: The Alliance Politics of Nuclear Proliferation (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2018). OPEN ACCESS.
Nuclear Proliferation and Nonproliferation among Soviet Allies, Journal of Global Security Studies, vol. 3, no. 2 (2018): 217-233. LINK.
The Belarus Factor in European Security, Parameters, vol. 47, no. 4 (2018): 75-84. OPEN ACCESS.
Tangled Up in Rose? Theories of Alliance Entrapment and the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 39, no. 2 (2018): 234-257. LINK.
Nuclear Ambiguity, No-First-Use, and Crisis Stability in Asymmetrical Crises, Nonproliferation Review, vol. 24, no. 3-4 (2017): 343-355, with Thomas Leo Scherer. LINK.
From Ottawa to Riga: Three Tensions in Canadian Defence Policy, International Journal, vol. 72, no. 4 (2017): 520-537. Winner of the 2017 Marvin Gelber Prize. LINK.
To Arm or To Ally? The Patron’s Dilemma and the Strategic Logic of Arms Transfers and Alliances, International Security, vol. 41, no. 2 (2016): 90-139, with Keren Yarhi-Milo and Zack Cooper. LINK.
Correspondence: Arms, Alliances, and Patron-Client Relationships, International Security, vol. 42, no. 3 (2017/18): 183-186, with Tongfi Kim, Keren Yarhi-Milo, and Zack Cooper. LINK.
Russian Hybrid Warfare and Extended Deterrence in Eastern Europe, International Affairs, vol. 92, no. 1 (2016): 175-195. LINK.
Landpower and American Credibility, Parameters, vol. 45, no. 4 (2015-2016): 17-26, with Michael A. Hunzeker. Winner of the 2015 Elihu Root Prize (first place). OPEN ACCESS.
Rage of Honor: Entente Indignation and the Lost Chance for Peace in the First World War, Security Studies, vol. 24, no. 4 (2015): 662-695, with Michael A. Hunzeker. LINK.
*Do Allies Really Free Ride? Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, vol. 57, no. 3 (2015): 133-152. Winner of the 2014 Palliser Prize. LINK.
Beyond Consent and Coercion: Using Republican Political Theory to Understand International Hierarchies, International Theory, vol. 5, no. 3 (2013): 382-413. LINK.
* Not peer-reviewed.
Deepening British-Ukrainian Relations in a More Competitive Era, Council on Geostrategy, 20 July 2022, with James Rogers and Hanna Shelest. Foreword by UK foreign secretary Liz Truss and Ukrainian minister of foreign affairs Dmytro Kuleba.
Strategic Shifts and NATO’s New Strategic Concept, NATO Defence College Research Paper No. 24, June 2022, with Andrea Gilli (project leader), Mauro Gilli, Gorana Grgić, Marina Henke, Hugo Meijer, Lucrezia Scaglioli, Nina Silove, Luis Simón, and Max Smeets.
A New Energy Policy for Europe: The Significance of Ukraine, Council on Geostrategy, 8 June 2022, with James Rogers and Patrick Triglavcanin. Foreword by the Lord Risby.
'Global Britain' and the Black Sea Region, Council on Geostrategy, 29 March 2022, with James Rogers. Foreword by former Secretary of State for Defence Sir Michael Fallon.
Nodal Defence in Europe and Its Implications for Poland, Analizy Międzynarodowe, no. 22 (2021): 33-38. LINK.
The Black Sea Region: Beyond NATO, Council on Geostrategy, 25 November 2021, with Mark Galeotti and James Rogers. Foreword by Alicia Kearns MP.
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"To Engage or to Contain? Canada-Russia Relations in the Shifting International Order," in Palgrave Handbook of Canada in International Affairs, eds. Robert W. Murray and Paul Gecelovsky (Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave, 2021). LINK.
A Military Drawdown in Germany? US Force Posture from Trump to Biden, The Washington Quarterly, vol. 44, no. 1 (2021): 199-218, with Luis Simón. LINK.
A ‘Crowe Memorandum’ for the Twenty-First Century: Preparing for Intensified Geopolitical Competition, Council on Geostrategy, 2 March 2021, with James Rogers. Foreword by Tom Tugendhat (MP).
More Challenges than Opportunities in Canada's Transatlantic Relations, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, 15 December 2020.
Lessons from the Enhanced Forward Presence, 2017-2020, NATO Defence College Research Paper (Rome, Italy: NATO Defence College, 2020), co-edited with Christian Leuprecht and Alexander Moens. OPEN ACCESS.
“The Case for NATO Theatre-range Missiles in Europe,” in Beyond Bursting Bubbles: Understanding the Full Spectrum of the Russian A2/AD Threat and Identifying Strategies for Counteraction, eds. Michael Jonsson and Robert Dalsjö (Stockholm: Swedish Defence Agency [FOI], 2020).
Future Multilateral Cooperation: Leveraging the NATO enhanced Forward Presence Two Years On, Riga Conference Papers 2019 and Atlantische Perspectief, with Christian Leuprecht, Jayson Derow, and Karolina Muti.
“How Emerging Technologies Might Affect Baltic Security,” in The Return of Deterrence: Credibility and Capabilities in a New Era, eds. William G. Braun, lll, Stéfanie von Hlatky, and Kim Richard Nossal (Kingston, ON: Centre for International and Defence Policy, 2018): 45-60.
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The Case for a Permanent U.S. Military Presence in Poland, War on the Rocks, 22 October 2018, with Michael A. Hunzeker.
Strategic Enabler or Point of Vulnerability: What Role for Belarus in Russia’s Military Plans, Modern War Institute (West Point), 21 March 2018.
Goodbye to All That? Institutionalist Theory, U.S. Alliances, and Donald Trump, Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 38, no. 1 (2017): 41-46. LINK.
Insurgency and Deterrence on NATO’s Northeastern Flank, Modern War Institute (West Point), 21 December 2016, with Michael A. Hunzeker.
Western Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence in a Time of Russian Disinformation, Institute for European Studies, Policy Brief (21/2016), 28 November 2016. LINK.
How Russia ‘Does’ and Understands Deterrence in the Early 21st Century, Ares & Athena 7, Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research, December 2016: 12-13.
Trumped Up Alliances? E-International Relations, 26 April 2016.