The Art of Partial Commitment: The Politics of Military Assistance to Ukraine
with Jordan Becker
"What sort of military assistance has Ukraine received to date from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members since 2014? What has driven NATO allies’ decisions to provide military assistance to Ukraine? This essay addresses both questions. It offers a preliminary examination of how strategic, economic, and risk considerations might have shaped NATO members’ decisions regarding arms transfers to Ukraine, a country that remains outside of the Alliance but nevertheless is an Enhanced Opportunities Partner. Using both a qualitative analysis of post-2014 assistance and a purpose-built dataset combining military aid to Ukraine since late January 2022, we find that prior strategic preparation in the form of investments in military readiness and infrastructure is strongly associated with military aid to Ukraine. Economic considerations and prominent risk factors such as fossil fuel dependency thus far have not."
The pre-February 2022 data used in this paper can be found in detailed form here.
My name is Alexander Lanoszka. I am an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science and in the Balsillie School of International Affairs at the University of Waterloo. I am also an Associate Fellow at the UK-based Council on Geostrategy. I am also a member of the Réseau d'Analyse Stratégique. For the 2022-23 Academic Year, I am a Visiting Professor at the College of Europe, Natolin, where I will take up a short residency in the spring of 2023.
I was previously a Lecturer in the Department of International Politics at City, University of London and held postdoctoral fellowships at Dartmouth College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. I received my Ph.D. in Politics from Princeton University in 2014.
My research addresses issues in alliance politics, nuclear strategy, and theories of war, and has appeared in International Security, Security Studies, International Affairs, and elsewhere. My books include Atomic Assurance: The Alliance Politics of Nuclear Proliferation (Cornell, 2018) and Military Alliances in the Twenty-First Century (Polity, 2022). I have done work on East Asia but Europe is my primary regional focus, with special emphasis on Central and Northeastern Europe. I have two places that I consider home: Windsor-Detroit and Krakow, Poland.
On this website, you will find information about my books, monographs, and published articles as well as information on my academic research, teaching, and commentary.
25 NOVEMBER 2022
I spoke with Jennifer Genauer in an episode of her podcast Update from Kyiv to discuss my book Military Alliances in the Twenty-First Century in the context of events from the past year. Give it a listen by clicking this link.
23 NOVEMBER 202
I gave an interview with the Conference of Defence Associations Institute to discuss the latest on Russia's war against Ukraine, with focus on the prospects for a settlement, the Przewodów incident, Putin's political survival, and so forth. You may read the interview here.
What I am reading now
Sir Lawrence Freedman's Command is a timely book given the contrast of command styles we observe in the Russian and Ukrainian militaries. It is a book that I have been reading slowly in order to appreciate its insights, delivered in each case-specific chapter.